Battleground for nations that won’t play ‘good boys’
This country is a summary of the ongoing
conflict in the Middle East. Yemen, located on the southern rim of the
region, is where Saudi Arabia and Iran contend for regional supremacy.
It’s become the battleground of nations that have a point to prove.
Report has it that some 7,000 people have been killed since 2015. A few
days ago, over 140 mourners attending a funeral were killed in air
strikes. Saudi Arabia said its fighters killed these Yemenis by mistake.
It’s one of the several fallout of the Riyadh-Teheran power play. Apart
from Iraq and Syria, Yemen is the other hot spot in the Middle East
where intense battles are going on. Riyadh and Teheran are involved in
all. Although these two are unavoidably part of this narrative, they
aren’t meant to be the focus.
It’s almost impossible to take a look at
Yemen without considering outsiders involved. Outsiders are the factor
in the conflict that has engulfed this nation. For instance, when
mourners were killed recently, watchers had promptly pointed fingers at
the external actors. It turned out they were right. It’s important to
state that the path Yemen took into chaos was different from Iraq’s, but
similar to Syria’s. As for further developments since Yemen went up in
flames, they’re essentially similar to those of these two northern
neighbours.
Crisis in Yemen began in 2011 after an
uprising against the leader of the country, Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had
had the backing of the United States and Saudi Arabia during his time in
power. This uprising led to Saleh stepping aside in 2012, while the
vice-president, also an ally of the Saudis, took over. In January 2015,
Houthi fighters close to troops loyal to Saleh took over a large part of
Yemen as well as the capital, Sanaa. Saudi Arabia thereafter formed a
coalition and began a campaign of air attacks against the new
government.
But Saudi Arabia wasn’t the only nation
interested in the turn of events in Yemen. Iran was too, as well as
radical elements that had links with foreign Islamists which past
administrations in Yemen had been battling with. As I had pointed out
several times on this page, the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran
shaped many of the major regional issues here. One being Sunni and the
other Shia, these different religious ideologies are conveniently
employed in the struggle for ascendancy. I admire nations that seek to
gain ascendancy in one form or the other. This gives a nation focus,
offering it a higher goal to pursue, while providing citizens with
issues that serve as a rallying point. I take note that the struggle
between Saudi Arabia and Iran has elements similar to the
communism-capitalism struggle – entrenchment of each ideology in the
country of origin, exporting it, using state resources to support
proponents of the ideology in other countries, deploying soft diplomacy
to win the support of citizens of other countries, propping up regimes
that are either pro-Saudi Arabia or pro-Iran, as well as engaging in war
by proxy in other countries when the need arises.
There’s this need in Yemen, so the
Saudis and the Iranians are in action. At this point, it’s important
that I reiterate my position on the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and
Iran. I had referred to it in previous pieces, but I need to place
emphasis on it. One of the things that fascinate me in the conflicts in
the Middle East, and which make me take a closer look is how nations
here have on their strategic thinking caps. This ensures they are on top
of the intrigues which relations among nations sometimes involve. I’m
for nations which keep up with the pace of intrigues that others engage
in. It means they have a keen sense of what their national interests
are, and they aren’t prepared to let others outwit them on this score.
Still on intrigues among nations on the
international stage, it will be recalled that the United Kingdom, France
and Germany once accused the United States of spying on them, including
listening in on the phone conversations of Germany’s Chancellor, Angela
Merkel. These western nations are allies. I find the incident
fascinating, another eye opener with respect to what nations do to one
another under the radar. Generally, I clap for nations which do their
best to watch over their national interests. By closely watching over
its interest is how any nation can stay on top and ahead of others in
international relations. Anyway, what else is a nation doing if it
nurses no ambition to beat others to something? Pursuit of interest is
one way to move from the bottom to becoming a respected nation. China
and Russia understand this so they go as far as snooping to secretly
picking latest information which western nations have in the areas of
economics, military, science, and IT innovation. I consider weak views
which encourage nations to seek praises as “good boys”, while they do
nothing to be powers that should be reckoned with in international
relations. Such views condemn a nation to existing without being a force
in any area of endeavour – economic, military, science, innovations,
and technology. No nation is respected that way; in fact it will be
largely ignored. If any nation desires not to be ignored, it has to
extend itself and this includes closely watching others to see what
advantages it can gain over them. Nations that extend themselves, by
diligently doing all they can to get ahead of others in economics,
science, or the military get noticed, and they get the respect. This is
one of the reasons the West can’t ignore China. It stridently defends
its interests – for now and the future – in the South China Sea; yet the
US officials must carry files to Beijing to hold trade talks. This
brings me back to the conflict in Yemen, and the role of external
actors.
For me, Saudi Arabia and Iran protect
their individual interests in Yemen using different means, and at
different venues. This speaks to me about the level of coordination in
their foreign policies, as well as their level of strategic thinking.
Both try to leave no space uncovered. Each looks for areas of advantage
over the other. Yemen is there for the taking as an ally, and why not?
Note that the strategic location of Yemen at the bend of the Red Sea
and towards the Persian Gulf is vital to Saudi Arabia and Iran. With a
pro-Iran administration in Sanaa, capital of Yemen, the Saudis have one
more enemy on their southernmost flank. As it is, every nation in the
Middle East has a significant number of Shiites. The Saudis are wary of
the Shiite population anywhere. One more Shiite regime in the region is
a threat to Riyadh’s internal security. It’s no wonder the Saudis go to
war over the change of government in Yemen, a novel step by Riyadh’s
standard.
At the time Houthi fighters took over
power in 2015, they had confined Saleh’s successor, Abdrabbuh Mansur
Hadi, to his house in Sanna. He escaped and travelled to Aden. He made
an announcement that he was still in power. This provided the basis for
Saudi Arabia and the US to offer support to restore Hadi. The outcome
had been intense fighting between the Houthi government, Hadi’s
supporters, as well as other external actors.
Both the Saudis and the Iranians have
been accusing each other over the crisis in Yemen. The Houthis, the
Saudis have said, are Shiites, they are proxies for Iran, and they
receive weapons and training from Teheran. Eritrea that is across the
Red Sea to Yemen has also been accused of sending materials from Iranian
sources to the Houthis, and that it gives medical attention to the
fighters. At the moment, there’re words about a possible ceasefire in
the conflict in Yemen.
But lasting solutions may be harder
to find as a result of the intensity with which Saudi Arabia and Iran
stalk each other in the region for ascendancy, which for me is not the
problem. Rather, it is whether or not both sides will give and take in
spite of the rivalry.
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